How We Discovered the “0.33% HVAC Rule”: Estimating How Many People Search for HVAC Repair Each Month

ByJohn White

Understanding your potential customer base is key to local businesses, and one of the most effective ways to reach customers today is through local SEO.

But how do we quantify the actual search behavior of local consumers? This question led us on a journey to uncover just how many people in a city search for HVAC services each month.

What we discovered was surprising: around 0.33% of a city’s population is actively searching for HVAC services each month. We call this the “0.33% HVAC Rule.”

Here’s how we figured it out.

Our Methodology

To determine how many people search for HVAC repair services each month, we used a data-driven approach that combines national search volume data, The 80-20 Rule, and local population figures.

We used the highest-searched HVAC keywords to determine the bulk of search, then used The 80-20 Rule.

By analyzing key HVAC-related keywords and applying well-established SEO principles, we developed a scalable formula to estimate search demand in any city. This allows us to give HVAC businesses a clearer picture of their potential local audience.

Step 1: Collect National HVAC Search Volume Data

To get a broad view of HVAC-related search behavior across the U.S., we used a powerful SEO tool, Semrush, to gather search volume data for key HVAC-related keywords. We identified 100 high-impact keywords that cover the majority of what people search for when looking for HVAC services. These keywords included terms like:

  • ac repair near me
  • furnace repair
  • hvac companies near me
  • hvac installation
  • air conditioning repair

By analyzing these keywords, we found that the total monthly search volume for these 100 keywords across the U.S. was 879,830 searches. You can get the full list here.

Step 2: Apply the Pareto Principle (The 80/20 Rule)

While the 100 high-impact keywords covered a substantial amount of the HVAC search volume, they don’t capture everything. According to the Pareto Principle (80/20 Rule), around 80% of the total search volume typically comes from the top-performing keywords, while the remaining 20% comes from more niche, long-tail searches.

Using this principle, we estimated that the 879,830 searches represented roughly 80% of the total HVAC-related search volume in the U.S. This allowed us to calculate the total national search volume for HVAC services as:

This estimate represents the total monthly search volume for HVAC-related services across the U.S.

Step 3: Calculate Searches Per Person Based on U.S. Population

With the total national search volume calculated, we turned our attention to the U.S. population, which is approximately 330 million people. This allowed us to determine how many HVAC-related searches occur per person each month. Here’s the calculation:

Step 4: Introducing the “0.33% HVAC Rule”

To make this data easier to use in real-world applications, we rounded the number of searches per person to 0.0033, which translates to 0.33% when expressed as a percentage.

Thus, the “0.33% HVAC Rule” was born: 0.33% of a city’s population, on average, searches for HVAC services each month. This rule is simple, scalable, and can be applied to any city or region.

Step 5: Applying the “0.33% HVAC Rule” to Local Markets

With the 0.33% HVAC Rule in hand, we can easily estimate the monthly search volume for HVAC services in any city. The formula is simple:

Let’s apply this rule to a few example cities:

Why 0.33% is a Meaningful Number (and Why Local SEO is Worth It for HVAC Companies)

The power of local SEO goes beyond simply driving traffic—it’s about driving qualified, high-intent leads directly to your business. For HVAC companies, ranking in Google’s Local 3-Pack is critical. The Local 3-Pack is the set of map-based results that appear at the top of local searches, and it receives a significant portion of user attention.

Here’s why ranking in the Local 3-Pack is so valuable:

  • 44% of local searchers click on the Local 3-Pack, more than both organic results and paid ads.
  • The #1 position in the Local 3-Pack captures 17.8% of all local search clicks.
  • 80% of local searches result in a conversion within one day.

For HVAC businesses, this means that ranking in the Local 3-Pack allows you to capture a significant portion of local search traffic, most of whom are ready to make a decision immediately.

Let’s break it down using the 0.33% HVAC Rule for Winston-Salem, NC, which has a population of 250,000.

In Winston-Salem, approximately 825 people search for HVAC services each month (250,000 × 0.0033 = 825). If your HVAC business ranks #1 in the Local 3-Pack, you could capture 17.8% of those searches, translating to 147 clicks per month (825× 17.8% = 147).

The Local 3-Pack for Winston-Salem, NC for the keyword “hvac repair winston salem nc.”

The Value of HVAC Leads

Now, let’s discuss conversion rates. While paid ads in the HVAC industry have an average conversion rate of 13.87%, local search results—particularly those in the Local 3-Pack—tend to convert at a higher rate due to their higher trust and intent. For the Local 3-Pack, we’ll assume a 20% conversion rate, given that 80% of local searches lead to a conversion within a day.

With 147 clicks per month and a 20% conversion rate, you can expect to convert around 29 new customers per month:

147 clicks × 20% = 29 customers

However, not all of these customers will require high-revenue installations. In the U.S., 2–3 million HVAC systems are replaced each year, accounting for about 25% of HVAC service activities. The remaining 75% are repair and maintenance services.

Considering the mix of services:

  • Installations (25%): 29 customers × 25% = 7 installations
  • Repairs and Maintenance (75%): 29 customers × 75% = 22 repairs/maintenance jobs

Calculating Gross Profit:

  1. Installations:
    • Average Revenue per Installation: $7,000
    • Estimated Profit Margin: 35%
    • Profit per Installation: $7,000 × 35% = $2,450
    • Total Profit from Installations: 7 installations × $2,450 = $17,150
  2. Repairs and Maintenance:
    • Average Revenue per Repair/Maintenance: $300
    • Estimated Profit Margin: 50%
    • Profit per Repair/Maintenance: $300 × 50%= $150
    • Total Profit from Repairs/Maintenance: 22 jobs × $150= $3,300

Total Gross Profit per Month: $17,150 (Installations) + $3,300 (Repairs/Maintenance) = $20,450

Why Local SEO is an Excellent Investment for HVAC Companies

Given that HVAC companies typically pay between $200 and $300 per lead in paid advertising, local SEO presents a more cost-effective and higher-value opportunity. With $20,450 in gross profit generated from 29 new customers per month, the investment in local SEO to rank in the Local 3-Pack clearly provides a strong return on investment (ROI).

Additionally, the value of these leads extends beyond the initial job. Many HVAC customers require ongoing maintenance, repairs, and eventual system upgrades, making each new customer a potential long-term revenue source. The initial repair or maintenance job can lead to future high-revenue installations when the customer decides to replace their system.

The Lifetime Value of an HVAC Lead

An HVAC lead is not just a one-time opportunity. Regular maintenance and eventual system replacements significantly increase the lifetime value of each customer. By establishing a relationship through initial services, your company becomes the go-to provider for future needs, enhancing customer loyalty and increasing long-term profitability.

Conclusion: Why Local SEO is Essential for HVAC Businesses

By applying the 0.33% HVAC Rule and factoring in the 17.8% click-through rate for the #1 spot in the Local 3-Pack, it’s clear that local SEO offers tremendous growth potential for HVAC companies. Capturing just a fraction of local search traffic through the Local 3-Pack can result in high-value leads and substantial revenue.

For a city like Winston-Salem, where approximately 825 people search for HVAC services every month, ranking first in the Local 3-Pack could generate $20,450 in gross profit from 29 new customers. While these figures are estimates, they highlight the significant impact that effective local SEO can have on your business.

Investing in local SEO not only helps you capture immediate leads but also positions your company for sustained growth by building long-term customer relationships. If you’re not investing in local SEO, now is the time to start. Ranking in the Local 3-Pack ensures you’re converting valuable leads into long-term customers, driving both immediate and future profitability.

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